Between 2024 and 2029, Forrester is predicting an increase in online sales in Europe. It expects that online sales will grow from 389 billion euros in 2024, to 565 billion euros in 2029. Online sales will also take up a larger share of the total retail sales.
These data come from a recent study published by Forrester, an American research firm. The report looks at the five biggest economies in Western Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Spain an the United Kingdom. In 2023, the firm already predicted an annual growth rate in online sales of 9.2 percent up until 2028.
Annual growth rate of 7.8%
In this newer report, the expected annual growth rate seems to have slowed down a little. Between 2023 and 2029, the company expects a compound annual growth rate of 7.8 percent. Additionally, across the five markets, online sales will represent a share of almost 21 percent of all retail sales by 2029. In 2024, that share was still 16 percent.
Offline retail will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.7% by 2029
While ecommerce in Europe is expected to grow significantly, offline retail will increase at a slower rate. By 2029, offline retail sales are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of only 1.7 percent. In 2023, that rate was still 4.1 percent and in 2022 it was 8.9 percent.
European ecommerce dominated by the UK
When looking at the markets separately, Forrester expects that the United Kingdom will dominate European ecommerce. The market is expected to reach a turnover of 207 billion euros (or 176 billion British pounds) by 2029. Last year, the turnover was 152 billion euros (130 billion British pounds).
German ecommerce will also increase, from 97 billion euros in online sales last year to 146 billion euros by 2029. And in France, online turnover will reach 106 billion euros in 2029. Last year, the turnover was 73 billion euros.
In the UK, online sales will make up 32% of all retail sales
Ecommerce in the United Kingdom will make up 32 percent of the total retail sales by 2029, while German ecommerce will have a share of 21 percent. In France, the share of online sales will reach 17 percent. Additionally, these regions are expected to become a hub for marketplace-driven growth, says Forrester.
‘Reshaping retail landscape’
“The growth of online sales is reshaping the retail landscape, giving businesses opportunities to expand their customer base by offering more convenience and delivering tailored shopping experiences”, says Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “European retailers should consider investing in advanced digital platforms to adopt omnichannel strategies to meet growing demand online. Getting customer experience right in both online and offline realms will dictate market dominance in the next decade.”
